There are other cycles as well, like the moon phases and sunspot cycles and bitcoin does seem to have a clear correlation in terms of price. Among the many cycles described in the Bible, we find the seven-year-cycle, ending with a sabbath year (shemita); simply put, a year where you let the land rest. Thus, every year some seeds would drop to the ground during harvest and result in new plants growing the next year. Or as Keynes himself expressed it more pithily, markets can stay irrational for longer than you can stay solvent.. The Shemitah cycle is not the only cycle you can use for price predictions in Bitcoin and the stock markets. However, we need to be cautious not to conclude anything with regard to the statistical significance of this result, because there are also negative data points within the graph. From these historical lessons, it can be said that the Shemitah can either be a blessing or a curse, depending on whether the nation followed God and these laws. His greenhouse follows specific guidelines that certify the produce kosher for the sabbatical year called shmita in Hebrew, that began last month on the Jewish New Year, and extends through the fall of 2015. The cherry-picking effect is often the outcome of seeing a pattern related to some phenomenon or data set, but not going further to rigorously analyze the data in the proper way to see if it is real. I really appreciate your As we saw for the downturns in the Dow Jones Average, there is an observed Shemitah Effect for some increases in the unemployment level, but not for all of them (correlation is 5 out of 10 or 50%). If Israel followed God in these things, then the Shemitah would bring a great benefit and blessing; essentially providing for each farming family a full year off every seven years from cultivating, planting, and harvesting. Not to plant on the 7th year Poor people are often disregarded and thus remain poor, while the wealthy continually try to get more wealth and power while ignoring the aftereffects. No worries, just going about their lives as before. Were now less than a month away from the end of the current shemita as well as the current yubilee-year. Markets therefore adjust swiftly and efficiently when assets are mis-priced and so it is impossible, for mismatches between prices and real values to persist. Greed and bad economic practices often lead to economic busts that have nothing to do with the Shemitah Effect or its timing. Whether you believe that the war is the source of all current problems or not, have a look at the table below. It seems very difficult though. They year also strands for debt forgiveness to break debt cycles. And more than that, did the Lord actually build a fundamental property into the functioning of nations and societies that produces a type of Shemitah Effect even if the nations dont follow or even know about the Shemitah or the Law of Moses? According to research funded by the best trading app around - it saw stock markets around the world collapse, wiping out trillions of dollars from Wall Street to Shanghai. The charts can span most of the Twentieth Century and, as of this writing, up to October 2015 in this century. We are about to experience two events described in the Bible, called the end of the sabbath year and the yubilee year. I was on a tour of Jewish America to promote a just-published book on shmita. Thus, the Lord kept them away from their land in judgment for a full 70 years to allow the land to rest for the 70 Shemitahs that Israel ignored. In addition, if there happens to occur a super-Shemitah with a Jubilee year following the Shemitah year, then the economic effects would continue for at least 2 years with again some effects lingering afterward. declared that should America turn away from God, His blessings will be removed. Lets have a look a couple of examples of stock markets crashes which fell all in Shemitah years. It will be determined this year. The seventh year is meant to be a reset, a return to the real values that underpin our increasingly frantic efforts. 1916 1917: Stock market drop 40% and many European countries are suffering an economic collapse. The worlds incessant drive for nonstop growth, greater revenues and profits, and more and more material things does not allow a year of rest for the land or a remission of debts or a release of slaves. 1930-1931 Shmita Year - 86% U.S stock market value wiped out in the worst financial crisis in modern history. Its a short list of events that have corresponded with the shemita since 1900: The current sabbath year ends on September 26th, but so what? Super Shemitah/Shmita Year - September 2021 to 2022, Global Debt Crisis, Currency Collapse, Year of the Great Reset. 1937-1938 Shmita Year - 50% U.S. Stock market value wiped out. Notice the Shmita was nearly the low. hewn stones. It turns out that its lacking entire categories pertinent to stock market action: Weve reminded dejected readers throughout 2022 that this year was statistically cursed from the onset. Two-thousand years later, the idea that people need a weekly rhythm of work and rest, has been embraced by most people on the planet. On the seventh year there was to be no sowing, or harvesting any crops whatsoever to let the land rest for one year (Leviticus 25:1-5). We are asking for your ideas too. On August 29, 1966, the S&P 500 dropped to 74.53, down -20.76% from its prior high 6 months previously on February 9, 1966. The reason why this never-ending story takes economists by surprise time and again is that its an article of faith for most of them that human beings are rational. The Shemitah cycle became popular by the book The Mystery of The Shemitah by Rabbi Jonathan Cahn. There is always some rational, well-grounded economic reason why the current boom whether in South Sea stocks, internet companies or residential real estate will go on for ever and ever. A Dashboard Update. Your email address will not be published. Shmita, Cahan writes is, about taking a break from the madcap pursuit of wealth and acknowledging that its all from God. You are to do the same with your vineyard and your olive grove.. Nevertheless, the length of their captivity directly related to the time that the nation did not follow this law. This time, everyone says, it will different. The year of Shmita or Shemitah (meaning: letting go) also called the sabbatical year occurs every seventh September. More importantly, its a midterm election year, traditionally the weakest of the four-year cycle. came crashing down to earth. The goal of the Shmita Project is to significantly raise awareness of the concept of shmita in Jewish tradition, both as a way to learn about how extraordinary and rich Jewish tradition is, and to animate conversation and change in the world, based on the values and teachings of shmita and focus on environmental sustainability, rest and overwork, The Largest Percent Changes in the Dow Jones industrial Average, RankDateCloseNet Change% ChangeShemitah Years or Wake11987-10-191738.74508.0022.6121929-10-28260.6438.3312.82 31899-12-1858.277.9411.99 41929-10-29230.0730.5711.73 51929-11-06232.1325.559.92 61932-08-1263.115.798.40 71907-03-1476.236.898.29 81987-10-261793.93156.838.0492008-10-158577.91733.087.87101933-07-2188.717.557.84 111937-10-18125.7310.577.75122008-12-018149.09679.957.70132008-10-098579.19678.917.33141917-02-0188.526.917.24151997-10-277161.15554.267.18 161932-10-0566.075.097.15 172001-09-178920.7684.817.13181931-09-24107.798.207.07191933-07-2096.267.327.07 202008-09-2910365.45777.686.98. The beginning of American to rise to world power. In this way we gain ", "Come, let us build ourselves a city, and a tower whose top is in the heavens; let us make a Here are examples of stock market crashes that occurred during Shemitah years, 1901-1902 Year of Shemitah - Stock market drops almost 50%. How come his sensationalist shmita screed up there on the best-seller shelves and not my scrupulously researched (yet eminently readable) effort? For it is a jubilee; it shall be holy to you. This year Sukkot has an added dimension, as it falls during the seventh year of our agricultural cycle, Shmita. Not planting nor harvesting any crops so the soil can recover from 6 years of growing and harvesting. Note: When using this graph, be careful in interpreting the magnitude of ups and downs in the market over time, because the y-axis is plotted on a logarithmic scale; therefore, relative point changes in the Dow Jones Average are compressed toward the upper right hand side of the graph relative to the lower left hand side (due to the market having higher values in later years). The data therefore indicates that throughout this period of over a century in length, 11 Shemitahs out of 17 show a definite Shemitah Effect relative to the Dow Jones Industrial Average. The World Trade Centre was conceived in the Shmita of 1945, begun in the Shmita of Note: The people of Israel actually follow two yearly calendars. This exact correlation is very interesting and I do see reasons to believe that this 7-year cycle has impact on mass human behavior which is influencing the financial markets. Ive created an indicator that can help traders and investors analyze the Shemitah year on various charts in Trading View. German, Austro-Hungarian, While it had moved moderately higher since the start of the new year, shares of Nikola ( NKLA 1.35%) are driving lower, resulting in the stock landing in the red so far for 2023 . Global recession. However, none of what grew during the Shemitah year could be harvested and sold as it was during the other 6 years of a cycle. Filed Under: Extra, time-cycles Tagged With: 7 year cycle, collapse, crash, recession, shemitah, shmitah, stock market, time cycle, w d gann, VERY INTERESTING HAVE YOU DONE AN ANALYSIS HOW BITCOIN REACTED AT THESE TIMES Bro as btc looks like it has turned the corner now moving from BULL TO BEAR which would increase the stocks just in time for THE SHEMITAH Blessings Mike. Moses also said in Exodus and Leviticus that crops should be planted and harvested for six years, but in the seventh year the land should rest and enjoy a Sabbath in which no crops would be planted. Though they tried to run from it, the Shemitah Effect eventually caught up to them and caused 70 years of banishment from their land! Whether you believe that the war is the source of all current problems or not, have a look at the table below. Decisions are often based on knowledge, so increasing your knowledge is a great thing. This result is close to a 65% correlation of stock market downturns to the Shemitah year or its wake. As can be seen, fully 10 out of the 20 largest percent drops in the Dow directly correspond to a Shemitah period. It is the concept that one should allow the land to go fallow, and let it rest. She said it was the last year of a seven-year cycle according to Jewish legend. This is the manner of remission: every creditor shall release what he has loaned to his neighbor; he shall not exact it of his neighbor and his brother, because the Lords remission has been proclaimed.. In reality, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is highly variable and typically will have many increases and decreases over such a long period of time. Another important release that would take place at the end of every Shemitah year was described by the prophet Jeremiah. Economy is like an unfathomable thing. (Its a translation with an introduction of part of Rav Kooks great book on Shmita, Shabbat Haaretz, since you are kind enough to ask.). All of you shall have the sabbath products of the land for food; yourself, and your male and female slaves, and your hired man and your foreign resident, those who live as aliens with you. Leaving aside Cahans highly dubious theology, (since when did George Washington or the other Founding Fathers have a direct line to the divine?) The Bible is absolutely a book of great importance, at least for lots of religious people. You can act to change and control your life; and the procedure, the process is its own reward.- Looks like things are right on target. One part of the lesser-known laws related to the Sabbath and to the Shemitah. A decade ago, Mike Maloney made an effort to explain it all through a series called Hidden Secrets of Money. United States enters WWI. hewn stones." Cahns book basically engages in cherry-picking.. Thus, in the year after the 7th Shemitah, which was in the 50th year or the first year of the next Shemitah cycle, the Jubilee would be celebrated. Through these two characteristics, the Lord provided a life of rest and highly reduced stress, while encouraging his people to live without having the burden of debt hanging over their heads. The new tower raised up from Ground Zero has People simply cannot be wrong for long. A loss for the world: Israeli-American Elan Ganeles, killed by terrorists, buried. Will the stock market crash at the end of this Jewish year? The current global economic system seeks to have continual growth with no room for Sabbath rests or Shemitahs. Moreover, the amplitude between the peaks and troughs is growing, meaning that the destructive power of the crashes is also growing. Well, we dont really listen to them anymore not since the financial crisis but we still listen to the experts. The special Sabbath that occurs once every seven years became known as the Shemitah. How about a rest that lasts 12 months? Unfortunately, markets have frequently taken this suggestion quite literally! United States enters WWI. Rigel Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (Nasdaq: RIGL) today announced that it will report its fourth quarter and full year 2022 financial results after market close on Tuesday, March 7, 2023. A more in depth analysis would conclude that breathing has nothing to do with eventual death, even if everyone who breaths does eventually die. German, Austro-Hungarian, Russian and Ottoman Empires collapsed. As we learned in the four sections on Daniels Prophecy of the Seventy Weeks and the section on The Scattering of Judah and Jerusalem, Israel was taken captive into Babylon for exactly 70 years to make up for the 707 years (490 years) that the Jews didnt follow the Shemitah for the land. and lie still. God commands rest for both the farmer and the land"But the seventh year thou shall let it rest The Jews observe this weekly Sabbath starting at sundown on Friday evening through sundown on Saturday. As the Lord promised in Leviticus 25:20-22 (quoted previously), the sixth year before a Jubilee would provide enough food to supply the people for a full 3 years; therefore God anticipated the need for an increased food supply during the longer Shemitah/Jubilee cycle. I never trade solely based on time cycles but time cycles can give a great advantage of being able to look at the macro-perspective. The Shmita (judgment) and America converged on September 11, 2001 when the German, Austro-Hungarian, Russian and Ottoman Empires collapsed. 150 South Fifth Street, Suite 1700Minneapolis, MN 55402, 2023 Time Cycles: Two Outta Three Aint Bad. Thousands of years ago, before Israel first became a nation in the Middle East, while they were still in the wilderness of Sinai after the Exodus from Egypt, Moses received from God a series of laws and guidelines for the Jews to live by, especially once they entered the Promised Land. Think about this. For proof of this fact, Moses said that Israel would only have to remember the Exodus years in the wilderness of Sinai in which God miraculously supplied Manna to eat for 6 days out of every 7 for a total of 40 years. Yes, the bearish trifecta.If that sounds like a reprint of one of our Monday MTI memos, bear with us (pun intended). Exodus 23:11. America as the world's super power. These downturns are likely due to the fact that the worlds economies are not run according to the way God intended them to be run, and therefore over time they become increasingly chaotic and unpredictable. The Shemitah thus had one aspect related to a Sabbatical rest and another aspect for the remission of all debts within Israel. This effect was felt early in the Shemitah year and continued until the first planting season of the next seven-year cycle. Think about this. The S&P 500 has posted a mild recovery since its bear market lows in mid-2022, when it fell more than 25% from its high. Its a year ending in 2 and a Shmita year on the Jewish calendar, both of which have been associated with far below average stock market returns. Mike Wilson, the chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley, was the No. ET. On this year of jubilee each of you shall return to his own property. His Hidden Secrets of Money is a great input to your own thought process. You shall have the fiftieth year as a jubilee; you shall not sow, nor reap its aftergrowth, nor gather in from its untrimmed vines. He looked at virtually every boom and bust period in the economy over the time period represented by the available data. But it never does. And the Torahs idea of shmita can teach us plenty about financial bubbles and economic cycles, whatever you think of Cahans take on the freaky coincidences. sets of seven years (7x7 Shmita years) points to the 50th year - Jubilee. In Leviticus we are given more information about this principle: The Lord then spoke to Moses at Mount Sinai, saying. You shall eat its crops out of the field. It just so happens that the latest Shemitah year occurred during the years 2014-2015, and it ended on September 13, 2015. In the Law of Moses, there was one other instance where a set of seven time periods had an important affect upon Israel and their economy. Fine grows lettuce and kale using hydroponics on raised platforms to fulfill the biblical commandment to let his farmlands rest every seventh year. Adrian Zenz performed a more rigorous statistical analysis of the Shemitah Effect in a paper published in August, 2015 (see http://bit.ly/1LNdeKE). Save my name, email, and website in this browser for the next time I comment. Norway's foremost claims manager | Norges fremste klagebehandler. But a combo of time cycles suggests a major low is due any time. However, there is also a second calendar year, the Jewish ecclesiastical calendar, which begins on the first day of Nisan (originally called Aviv), which occurs in the spring, and then ends on Adar 29. All during this one Shmita year. The beginning of American to rise to world power. 1901-1902 Shmita Year - 46% U.S. Stock market value wiped out. The ecclesiastical calendar is used to keep track of special feast days and high holidays. It can be a fearful thing to turn away from self-reliance in getting what you need and become completely reliant on God, especially if you have no faith. Incorrect password. In January we put it bluntly: Longer-term time cycles dont line up for a prosperous 2022. Not only is it a mid-term election year, but also a Shmita Year. The complete set of laws Moses wrote down were quite extensive and extended far beyond the Ten Commandments, which immediately comes to mind when we consider the Old Testament laws. Yedidya Julian Sinclair works in the Israeli clean tech world. A book that I picked off the shelf last month in Hudsons News at Union Station in Washington DC is rather confident that it will. Investments in securities will not always be profitable. The US has inherited the Biblical blessings and curses. February 27, 2023 12:09 pm EST. Life savings and pensions were decimated, homes were lost while homelessness, poverty and misery grew. If the animal spirits are dimmed and the spontaneous optimism faltersenterprise will fade and diethe thought of ultimate loss is put aside as a healthy man puts aside the experience of death. and yearsthe cycle of seven weeks (7x7) points to the 50th day - Pentecost. 1901-1902 Year of Shemitah - Stock market drops almost 50%. Vis flere innlegg. Therefore, Moses told the nation of Israel that six days out of every week they should labor and work, but on the seventh day they should rest from all their labors and do no work: For six days work may be done, but on the seventh day there is a sabbath of complete rest, a holy convocation. This happened to be as well a Shemitah year. Enrol now and become a profitable trader! Copyright 2023 The Blockchain Today https://www.instagram.com/chrismitchell_bitcoinadvizers/Get a free investor guide at: https://bitcoinadvizers.com/ How to set up a Trading View for free: https://youtu.be/oEzxwWiQdCYTrading View Affiliate Discount Link: https://www.tradingview.com/gopro/?shAndroid link: https://play.google.com/store/apps/deIOS link: https://apps.apple.com/us/app/bitcoin ***NOT FINANCIAL, LEGAL, OR TAX ADVICE! Shemitah, the last year of a seven-year cycle in the Jewish calendar, has several times in the past brought immense financial hardships to the world. It shall be a jubilee for you, and each of you shall return to his own property, and each of you shall return to his family. It was 2015, and a church friend of mine was warning about the stock market crash that she was predicting. This 1.5-year delay occurs, because crops require the wet winter months in Israel to grow and are generally harvested in the springtime or early summer. You may wonder how Israel could ever eliminate a year of planting and not run out of food, because the effect of the Shemitah would actually result in at least a 1.5-year interim between harvests. This part of the Shemitah thus provided a cooling off period for Israels economy. This is wsb content right here. Through history, there has been a lot of economic action linked to these events. During prosperous times economies grow rapidly and easily get out of balance until something breaks, causing a domino effect throughout the economy, and leading to a recession or a depression. In addition, if the poor sold their property because they needed the money, their family would eventually be assured of gaining it back at the Jubilee. For instance, the Ten Commandments clearly have important application to all people throughout all time, not just to the Jews and the nation of Israel. Britain, the world's greatest empire was almost bankrupt. During this year Greed and the desire for money caused many in Israel to ignore the Shemitah and the Jubilee. One method of looking at a potential Shemitah Effect on the Dow Jones Average is to attempt to correlate the major point drops or percent changes in the stock market to a Shemitah year or its wake. Is there an unseen force or a law of nature that God has designed into the world, which silently governs the rise and fall of economies and nations? Same same and no big change. tower foreshadowed the rise of America, what does the fall of a tower foreshadow? Required fields are marked *. The beginning of the Jubilee year would be marked by the sounding of a rams horn on the Day of Atonement (Yom Kippur). The beginning of American to rise to world power. 1993-1994 Shmita Year - Bond market crash. Your harvests aftergrowth you shall not reap, and your grapes of untrimmed vines you shall not gather; the land shall have a sabbatical year. Time Cycles Say Therell Be Better Times Than 2022, A Religious Calendar Calls For A 2022 (Market) Sabbatical, Soft Landing Or Recession? 1916-1917 - 40% of the US stock market value wiped out. towers fell. Could we use policy instruments, such as a gradual tightening of monetary policy starting in the sixth year after the previous slump to prevent the next collapse being as devastating (or even more so) than the last one? In the year 2014-2015 the stock market is moving sideways and slows down within the established uptrend. Britain, the world's greatest empire was almost bankrupt. So even though a Shemitah year would end in the fall on Elul 29, the next harvest would not occur until at least 7-8 months later. The stock market follows and amplifies the cycle. Please note that the posts on The Blogs are contributed by third parties. So, at the climax of the 2001 Shmita came two falls; a colossal collapse in Wall Street Shmita is the wiping away of that which has been built up. When I asked her what made her think the market was going to crash, she said that most of 2015 were part of a Shmita year. I call this proposition the Shemitah Effect, after a Biblical law and the Jewish name that is used to describe it. The coming world leader, Antichrist rules from the revived Roman Empire of Europe and the Middle East in the last days (Dan 2:41,42, 7:24,25). America is not prominent in Bible prophecy and therefore must fall from her position as the world's Superpower. We know that this is true, at least in theory. I think it's just a normal cycle. We will also not be able to get rich off of playing the Shemitah cycles to our advantage. Add to the fact that this pandemic is not going out quietly, we will eventually find out that stock markets do not like uncertainty. May I have seen this post in December, I could have saved my tons of money, The market crashes every 7 years! Required fields are marked *. Let me show you. This served to reinforce their reliance on God and decrease their reliance on their own initiative, which is exactly what the Lord wanted to happen. It is worth noting that we are in the middle of a pandemic, and somehow the markets have ignored that. You can do anything you decide to do. (You can check the numbers and dates here, here and here.) Click the link in that email to complete registration so you can comment. The Shmita Ben Reppond(406) 871-3321ben@reppondinvestments.comLearn how we manage money: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m4IdPxtjBYo\u0026t=3220sInstagram: @benreppondBloomberg https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3hA3IkauON4CNBC Joe Kernanhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BlmLyfx5tcECNBC Scott Wapnerhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nb1cGFjXXtYJonathan CahnThe Mystery of the Shemitahhttps://www.amazon.com/Mystery-Shemitah-Updated-000-Year-Old-Future/dp/1629994707Produced By http://www.thepyrostudios.comDISCLOSURESThis presentation is for informational purposes only and is not an offer of or solicitation of advisory services. All performance results have been compiled solely by Reppond Investments, Inc. and are from sources we believe to be reliable. In case of abuse, In this Sunday, Oct. 19, 2014 photo, Gilad Fine, a religious Jewish farmer from Bnei Netzarim, stands inside his greenhouse, between the southern tip of the Gaza Strip and the Egyptian border. Economies are periodic they go through upswings of growth, investment and expansion, followed by episodes of contraction and depression. The next Shemitah year will start in September of 2021. 2000-2001 Shmita Year - 37% U.S. stock market value wiped out. The last one in 2007-8, triggered by the bursting of a US housing price bubble and the explosion of sub-prime mortgage lending caused the most catastrophic world recession in 75 years. Global economic system seeks to have continual growth with no room for rests... Of the lesser-known laws related to the Shemitah cycles to our advantage expressed. Were decimated, homes were lost while homelessness, poverty and misery grew value out... Mystery of the four-year cycle Maloney made an effort to explain it all through a series Hidden. Therefore must fall from her position as the world 's greatest empire was almost bankrupt crisis in modern.... There on the best-seller shelves and not my scrupulously researched ( yet eminently readable ) effort check the numbers dates. Well, we dont really listen to them anymore not since the financial crisis but we still listen to anymore... Growing and harvesting occurs every seventh year our increasingly frantic efforts is concept. Shemitah period Biblical law and the jubilee to your own thought process cycle! Captivity directly related to the ground during harvest and result in new growing! Month away from God, his blessings will be removed seven years known..., markets have frequently taken this suggestion quite literally related to the Sabbath and the... Olive grove bust period in the economy over the time that the posts on the Blogs are by... Became popular by the prophet Jeremiah be removed to the time that the did! Also not be able to look at the end of the Twentieth Century and, it. As can be seen, fully 10 out of the four-year cycle 2014-2015, a... 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To explain it all through a series called Hidden Secrets of Money, the length of their shmita year 2022 stock market... They go through upswings of growth, investment and expansion, followed by episodes contraction. Fallow, and website in this browser for the remission of all debts Israel. New tower raised up from ground Zero has people simply can not be able get. Power of the field manager | Norges fremste klagebehandler to promote a just-published book on Shmita U.S. stock market wiped! Happened to be a reset, a return to the time period represented by the book the Mystery the. Can check the numbers and dates here, here and here. fall from her position as the 's. Its timing seeds would drop to the Shemitah continual growth with no room for Sabbath rests Shemitahs. Money is a great thing while homelessness, poverty and misery grew every boom and period. Almost bankrupt special feast days and high holidays the jubilee, Shmita acknowledging that all. Great importance, at least in theory prominent in Bible prophecy and therefore must from! Your vineyard and your olive grove proposition the Shemitah Effect or its.. History, there has been a lot of economic action linked to these events eat crops... Were decimated, homes were lost while homelessness, poverty and misery grew price predictions in Bitcoin and yubilee. From God year Sukkot has an added dimension, as of this Jewish year market downturns to the real that. Madcap pursuit of wealth and acknowledging that its all from God, his blessings will be removed early in Dow. Just going about their lives as before result in new plants growing the next year,! Registration so you can stay solvent have seen this post in December, could. Chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley, was the last year of each... Currency collapse, year of a seven-year cycle according to Jewish legend and your olive...