In other words, Russias military modernization has been uneven at best. So what - and I'm going to ask you to explain, you know, what that means, but when you look at what's happening in Ukraine right now, tell me what you see. [75]ISW continues to assess that the forced deportation and adoption of Ukrainian children may constitute a violation of the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide. [60]A prominent Russian milblogger on February 28 amplified a report from a Russian soldier on December 9 that Russia has also fallen behind Ukrainian forces in terms of drone production and drone-operator training. [47]https://t.me/RVvoenkor/39332;https://twitter.com/Danspiun/status/16306 [48]https://www.facebook.com/OperationalCommandSouth/posts/pfbid0QKZqHXVCM4m [49]https://suspilnedot media/399572-zsu-vlucili-po-rosianah-u-timcasovo-okupovanomu-misti-pologi-na-zaporizzi/, [50]https://suspilnedot media/399500-rosijski-okupanti-ogolosuut-evakuaciu-koli-zbirautsa-tikati-gumenuk-pro-situaciu-na-livoberezzi-hersonsini/. [9]Putin has frequently invoked mentions of domestic security, law enforcement, and counterterrorism efforts when speaking about the war in Ukraine in order to portray the war as a threat to Russian internal security and to bring the war closer to his domestic constituency as ISW has previously reported. KYIV, Ukraine (AP) Ukraines military could pull back from the key eastern stronghold of Bakhmut, an adviser to the Ukrainian president said Wednesday, Exact losses are unconfirmed; Ukraines military claims that in mid-February Russia lost 36 tanks. And the battle last - was in a stalemate for two hours between our best and these mercenaries until we called in our air support - you know, B-52s - well, not - like, AC-130 gunships, Apache helicopters, Predators. France is to reduce its military presence in Africa and transform its bases into partnerships with African soldiers, References to all sources used are provided in the endnotes of each update. Published Feb 25, 2023 3:07 PM EST. This is well known. MCFATE: Well, I've had a couple of conversations - well, more than a few with Wagner Group mercenaries. He was American. Economic collapse and corruption resulted in dysfunctions ranging from You know, the U.S. Marine Corps? It hasn't - the horror hasn't started yet. In total, russia has only 6 A-50Us and 3 outdated A-50s. https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1630616430210170880?s=20;ht https://t.me/LPR_JCCC/8071;https://t.me/LPR_JCCC/8069. He says that most never see T-90s or BTR-90, most of the army is sitting on old BTR-80s and T-72B3s. If Step 2 hit a big obstacle, the by-the-book soldiers moved on to Step 3 anyway. [73]The Ukrainian General Prosecutors Office reported on February 28 that Russian officials have forcibly removed 16,000 Ukrainian children from Ukraine to Russia and Belarus and that Ukrainian officials have managed to return 307 of those children to Ukrainian-held territory. Thousands who fled Kyiv, the Ukrainian capital, arrived at the train station in Lviv, in the west. [39], Russian forces did not conduct any confirmed ground attacks in western Donetsk Oblast on February 28. Geolocated footage published on February 27 claims to show Ukrainian Special Forces conducting a raid against Russian forces on Krukhlyk Island (4km south of Kherson City) and likely indicates that Ukrainian forces hold positions on at least the northern part of neighboring Velikiy Potemkin Island. [67]https://t.me/vladlentatarsky/19653;https://t.me/SergeyKolyasnikov/4666 [68]https://meduzadot io/feature/2023/02/27/shkolnitsa-iz-tulskoy-oblasti-narisovala-antivoennyy-risunok-teper-otets-kotoryy-vospityvaet-ee-odin-figurant-ugolovnogo-dela-o-diskreditatsii-armii, [69]https://t.me/astrapress/21972;https://t.me/sotaproject/54572, [70]https://minre.govdot ua/news/ukazom-prezydenta-vvedeno-v-diyu-personalni-sankciyi-shchodo-rosiyan-prychetnyh-do-deportaciyi;https://www.president.govdot ua/documents/1152023-45957, [71]https://minre.govdot ua/news/ukazom-prezydenta-vvedeno-v-diyu-personalni-sankciyi-shchodo-rosiyan-prychetnyh-do-deportaciyi;https://www.president.govdot ua/documents/1152023-45957, [73]https://minre.govdot ua/news/ukazom-prezydenta-vvedeno-v-diyu-personalni-sankciyi-shchodo-rosiyan-prychetnyh-do-deportaciyi;https://www.president.govdot ua/documents/1152023-45957, [74]https://armyinform.comdot ua/2023/02/28/rosiya-nasylno-vyvezla-z-ukrayiny-ponad-16-tysyach-ditej-ofis-genprokurora/, [75]https://www.dw dot com/en/ukraine-calls-transfer-of-children-to-russia-genocidal-crime/a-64835163, [76]https://t.me/SALDO_VGA/481;https://t.me/SALDO_VGA/480, [77]https://sprotyv.moddot gov.ua/2023/02/28/rosiyany-zmushuyut-ukrayinskyh-ditej-pysaty-lysty-okupantam/. With that in mind, let's look at some chestnuts about Russia's military in need of retirement. MARTIN: So one reason I think that Russian tactics stand out is that, in recent years, we have really associated the Russians with so-called hybrid war - right? General Herems colleague and the air force chief, Brig. A Russian tank destroyed by Ukrainian forces in the region of Luhansk on Saturday. Anatolii Stepanov/AFP via Getty Images After four days of fighting, the [1] The Russian MoD relatedly claimed on February 19 that Ukrainian officials are planning false-flag attacks at hazardous radiation facilities in Ukraine to accuse Russian forces of indiscriminately striking such sites. Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Wednesday that Russia's weapons should be modernized, in a rare hint that the Kremlin is acknowledging its military hardware is outdated. Economic collapse and corruption resulted in dysfunctions ranging from officers trying to sell submarines to drug runners, to alcoholism in the field and fighter pilots who only flew their aircraft 10 to 20 hours annually culminating in the humiliating destruction of Russian armored columns in the Chechen separatist capital of Grozny. But it is relentless, and theres still a lot of force to be applied., As Russias Military Stumbles, Its Adversaries Take Note, https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/07/us/politics/russia-ukraine-military.html. While the Russian armys troubles are real, the publics view of the fight is skewed by the realities of the information battlefield. The Patriot air defence is outdated. The question How outdated is the Russian military? is a bit silly when one considers the acknowledgement made by nearly every MSM of the advancem Russian armor losses have been so severe that military leadership is dipping into a fleet of outdated vehicles. Russia Is Still Using 60-Year-Old Tanks in Ukraine. They need to be escorted by infantry troops alongside or by combat planes from above, to avoid getting ambushed. The military-historical caricature is that Moscow relied on the sheer mass of bodies and heavy weapons to defeat qualitatively superior foes. Putins invasion has rallied Ukrainian nationalism, stiffened the Wests spine, and sent his own economy into a tailspin. [74]Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba stated on February 27 that Russias forced deportation of Ukrainian children is probably the largest forced deportation in modern history and a genocidal crime. [5]The Russian MoD and top Russian officials will likely escalate their engagement with such information operations as the ongoing Russian offensive in Luhansk Oblast nears culmination and the opportunities for Ukrainian counter-offensives grow. Undersecretary of Defense for Policy Colin Kahl stated that the US does not assess that Russia will use nuclear weapons during a House Armed Service Committee hearing on American military support for Ukraine on February 28. Like, the troll factory creates disinformation, creates the fog of war. NOW WATCH: Russia just introduced a new missile nicknamed 'Satan 2' here's a look at their other formidable weapon systems, fragging" unpopular officers with grenades, humiliating destruction of Russian armored columns, doctrinal and technical innovations in the Soviet military. WebAnswer (1 of 21): Yes. And while the West was still scratching its head about what was really going on in eastern Ukraine, Crimea was a fait accompli. Articles may contain affiliate links which enable us to share in the revenue of any purchases made. Today what I have seen is that even this huge army or military is not so huge, said Lt. Gen. Martin Herem, Estonias chief of defense, during a news conference at an air base in northern Estonia with Gen. Mark A. Milley, the chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff. Or Russia could try to shut down Ukraines banking system, or parts of the power grid, to increase pressure on the civilian population to capitulate. It is why Ukrainian soldiers explicitly attacked the Russian supply lines. So they reported lies to him instead. And right now, they're going through the streets of Kyiv in plainclothes. These events suggest that there is a decline in the Russian militarys commitment to continue the war. Yet, in this invasion, Russian tanks are rolling all on their own or providing protection for reconnaissance scouts, but getting no protection for themselves. Four days of fighting might seem an eternity when viewed through the prism of round-the-clock cable news, but, in retrospect, a month from now, it will seem like the blink of an eye. It's time to retire outdated stereotypes about the Russian military: As the possibility of an escalated Russian war in Ukraine looms larger and larger, a noted strategist and historian took to social media to argue Moscow's forces could be handily repelled by little hit-and-run warfare by Ukrainian civilians-at-arms. Pretty outdated. In addition, the Russian senior officers have proved so far to be risk-averse, the officials said. [4]The recent resurgence of several standard Russian information operations in the form of false flag warnings and tired nuclear threats suggests that Russian officials are increasingly trying to mitigate the informational impacts of a continued lack of Russian battlefield successes as well as to slow down the provision of Western tanks and other equipment in advance of expected Ukrainian counter-offensives. [12]These goals include regime change of the Ukrainian government under the rubric of denazification and the elimination of Ukraines ability to defend itself against future Russian attacks under the rubric of demilitarization.[13]Peskov also stated that Russia made serious preparations for security talks before launching the invasion of Ukraine but accused the West of being unreceptive to such talks. ISW has not observed indicators that Russian forces are preparing to resume prolonged offensive activity in Zaporizhia Oblast or any offensive activity in Kherson Oblast. The Russian government has found Wagner and other private military companies to be useful as a way to extend its influence overseas without the visibility and intrusiveness of state military forces. It is not a winning technique for the long run against organized defenses. So, as might be expected, lots of Russian tanks are getting ambushed. Russia has begun military maneuvers with larger units in recent days and has assembled a large force around Kyiv that appears poised for a possible multipronged attack on the capital soon, he added. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report. Its a bad army!. Despite having a huge advantage in armor when the war broke out, severe losses have weakened Russias forces. Earlier this week, Ukraine said Russia Russias equipment problem is just as difficult to solve. Theyve sent in only about two-thirds of the troops and weapons that had been poised on the Ukrainian border. Russia's disastrous First Chechen War revealed the shocking decay of Russia's military from its Soviet-era peak. [31]Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky emphasized that the situation in Bakhmut is becoming increasingly complicated, and Commander of the Ukrainian Ground Forces Colonel General Oleksandr Syrsky remarked that Wagner is increasingly committing its most prepared assault units to offensives in the area. Furthermore, declines in the ruble-to-dollar exchange rates don't as directly affect the price of military hardware Russia buys from Russian firms, ie. [62], Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin is likely using a potentially staged appeal of mobilized soldiers seeking to join Wagner PMC in hopes of improving Wagner PMCs reputation and appeal to potential recruits. By 2014 and 2015, wars in Ukraine and Syria revealed Russia's integration of drone surveillance, precision-strike capabilities, and deniable private military companies as tools to wage war with fewer casualties to regular Russian forces. But its also due to the fact that the Russian army just isnt very good. The A-50 AWACS was created by the Beriev Design Bureau on the basis of the IL-76 military transport aircraft in 1978-1985. Do the sources know the information? Soviet strategy amounted to a full-court press on NATO's outnumbered defenses in sectors like the Fulda Gap, with second and third wave divisions awaiting in echelon to pour into areas where a breakthrough seemed promising. Former Soviet satellite Slovakia has been a NATO member since 2004, but the reality of belonging to the worlds biggest military alliance really kicked in after Russias invasion of Ukraine a year ago. [28], Ukrainian forces continue to target Russian concentration areas in the rear of Luhansk Oblast. And what's their - and why do they do it? This is reflected in the Ground Force's preferred ad-hoc fighting formation, the Battalion Tactical Group, which combines infantry and tank companies with an unusually large quantity of artillery. "For example, for every item of gear or equipment, we must listen to those who use them and understand how these items perform and whether they are fit for their intended purpose," Putin told his coordination council, according to the Kremlin's official site. The A-50 AWACS was created by the Beriev Design Bureau on the basis of the IL-76 military transport aircraft in 1978-1985. Every day, Pentagon officials caution that Russias military will soon correct its mistakes, perhaps shutting off communications across the country, cutting off Mr. Zelensky from his commanders. Hence the stories of captured Russian troops who had no idea why they were in Ukraine. Russias War Time T-62 Tanks Serbia has shown interest in French jets since 2022 in the hopes of replacing outdated Soviet MIGs. That would be akin to assuming that the specific problems of the US's conscription-based Army during the Vietnam War, like the practice of "fragging" unpopular officers with grenades, are the same as those of the US's volunteer military today. Deutsche Wellereported that Lukashenko will sign a large package of agreements on developing joint projects, trade, economic, investment, humanitarian cooperation, and political cooperation with China during his three-day visit. Most Russian capabilities have been sitting on the sidelines, said Michael Kofman, director of Russia studies at CNA, a defense research institute, in an email. The vice president last week, in her visit to Poland, in her public statement, she was asked about this. His careful response, before reporters in Estonia: Weve seen a large, combined-arms, multi-axis invasion of the second-largest country in Europe, Ukraine, by Russian air, ground, special forces, intelligence forces, he said, before describing some of the bombardment brought by Russia and his concern over its indiscriminate firing on civilians. I mean, what mechanism of accountability is there? [31]Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky emphasized that the situation in Bakhmut is becoming increasingly complicated, and Commander of the Ukrainian Ground Forces Colonel General Oleksandr Syrsky remarked that Wagner is increasingly committing its most prepared assault units to offensives in the area. MCFATE: Sure. Some troops have crossed the border with MREs (meals ready to eat) The invocation of Chechnya and Finland is peculiar as while both conflicts with Russia suggest certain operational and tactical lessons, neither ended victoriously for Russia's opponents. [35]Footage taken by a Ukrainian soldier in Chasiv Yar shows heavy incoming fire directed at the settlement, suggesting that Russian forces are continuing to strike areas along the T0504 Kostiantynivka-Chasiv Yar-Bakhmut highway. And there will be lots of casualties. The rusty BTR-50P, which dates back to 1954, probably wont fare too well in combat. The result: Militaries in Europe that once feared Russia say they are not as intimidated by Russian ground forces as they were in the past. Wagner Group-affiliated media outlet, posted footage on February 27 and 28 showing Wagner fighters walking around northern Bakhmut near the Stupky railway station and Sady Bakhmuta garden store, indicating that Wagner has advanced in northern Bakhmut. These events suggest that there is a decline in the Russian militarys commitment to continue the war. A Saint Petersburg local news source reported that a graduate student faces criminal charges for breaking a window at the Vyborg Raion, Saint Petersburg military registration and enlistment office, and painting anti-war slogans in the office on February 26. Ukrainian officials reported that Russian forces may be preparing for offensive operations in Zaporizhia and Kherson oblasts. The current Russian army is a replica of Joseph Stalin s Red Army, designed to saturate minefields with bodies. [42]Ukrainian Mariupol Mayoral Advisor Petro Andryushchenko reported that Russian forces have transferred between 20,000 and 25,000 personnel from Mariupol Raion, Donetsk Oblast, to unspecified areas of the front, although Russian forces likely transferred most of these personnel to areas of active offensive operations elsewhere in Donetsk Oblast. [78]The images do not show any obvious damage to the aircraft fuselage but do seemingly show color differences on the aircrafts wings and radar dome, potentially indicating repainting. [38]The Ukrainian General Staff detailed a successful strike on a Russian grouping in Marinka on February 27 that destroyed five tanks and seven BMP infantry fighting vehicles. Many of them are from Spetsnaz, which is Russian special forces, and they're very tough. Another by-blow of this policy is a lack of experienced non-commissioned officers (ie. [22]https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign [25]https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0dDf2w34VWwwcuYqnxSQ [26]https://t.me/wargonzo/11149;https://www.understandingwar.org/backgroun [27]https://t.me/btr80/5171;https://twitter.com/auditor_ya/status/16305795; https://twitter.com/EjShahid/status/1630263342756515840, [28]https://t.me/boris_rozhin/79250;https://t.me/sashakots/38680, [29]https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1630616430210170880?s=20;ht https://t.me/LPR_JCCC/8071;https://t.me/LPR_JCCC/8069. [10]Putins address to the FSB similarly aligns the FSB and its traditional domestic law enforcement and counterterrorism role with Russian military efforts in Ukraine in order to frame Russian victory in the war as necessary for Russias domestic security. Areas in the revenue of any purchases made had a couple of conversations - well, than. Still scratching its head about what was really going on in eastern Ukraine, was... 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